Divergent effectiveness of irrigation in enhancing food security in droughts under future climates with various emission scenarios

Abstract Food security is a key target in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and also one of biggest challenges for China, largest developing country population world. Massive attention has been directed to future impacts hydrometeorological extremes on crop yield. However, knowledge gaps still stand concerning effectiveness irrigation, as water consumption sector, agricultural production under different climate scenarios. Here we showed drought based modified Palmer Drought Severity Index analyzed drought-induced wheat yield losses irrigated non-irrigated agriculture across China according three methods including Multiple Linear Regression method, Deep Learning algorithm, Erosion-Productivity Impact Calculator model. We found that droughts become more intensive future, loss RCP8.5 scenario was expected reach 32–49%. Intercomparison changes between indicated significantly less crop-yield given sufficient irrigation RCP2.6 RCP6.0 our results suggested enhancing food minor this high-emission scenario. These findings allowed us revisit warming highlighted importance change mitigation security.